Why the San Diego Housing Market Does Not Matter

George Lorimer
Tuesday, October 6, 2026
Why the San Diego Housing Market Does Not Matter

OCTOBER 2026 SAN DIEGO HOUSING

Still Renting? The Market Doesn’t Have to Change for Your Life to Change.

Waiting until after the election? Next year? When mortgage rates fall or world events settle down? How long have you been saying that?

You don’t need to predict the perfect market. You need to know what you can comfortably afford, what is available, and which sellers may negotiate. Your first home doesn’t have to be your forever home.
 

Call George: 619-846-1244 Text George About Your Buying or Selling Plans Book Your Free Homebuyer Strategy Call

San Diego Home Values: What the September Numbers Show

This October update uses September 2026 San Diego County market data. Houses and condos are behaving differently, so a countywide headline will not tell you what your particular property is worth.

September 2026 Houses Condos / Townhomes
Median sale price $1,075,000 $650,000
Price change from September 2025 +7.0% -1.9%
Price change from August 2026 -2.7% -1.5%
Closed sales 1,154 579
Sales change from September 2025 -16.2% -13.3%
Median days on market 17 28
New listings 1,766 1,074
Sale-to-list price ratio 99% 99%
Average sale price per square foot $693 $615
Get Your Home Value

Combined closed sales fell 15.3% from last September. House prices rose year over year but eased from August; condo prices softened modestly. Prices have held up better than sales activity.

Median prices reflect which homes sold, not the change in value of every individual home. Your home’s value depends on its location, condition, features, and competition. Let’s compare it with the properties buyers are choosing today.

My Electric-Car Moment—and What It Taught Me About Housing

I bought an electric car a few months ago. Before that, I paid close attention to gas prices—and found electric-car drivers a little annoying. Then my perspective changed.

Housing can create a similar shift. As a renter, you are exposed to future rent increases. As an owner with a standard fixed-rate mortgage, you can lock in the principal-and-interest portion of your payment.

Taxes, insurance, maintenance, and HOA dues can still rise. But owning gives you a different kind of control over your future—and the opportunity to build equity.

The Opportunity: Negotiate More Than the Price

Higher financing costs make buyers more selective. On the right home, we can explore a price adjustment, seller-paid closing costs, or a mortgage rate buydown.

We should compare the actual payment, upfront cash, and long-term cost of each option. A permanent buydown and a temporary buydown are different: temporary buydowns lower payments for a limited period before scheduled increases.

Loan pricing, seller-credit limits, and your qualifications determine what is possible. A future refinance is an option to evaluate, not something your budget should depend on.

See Homes With Flexible Sellers Find Unlisted & Off-Market Homes

Ask me about assumable mortgages, builder incentives and assistance programs too. Eligibility, available properties and the cash needed to complete a purchase vary.

Consider an $800,000 Home: What Could Appreciation Add?

If an $800,000 home appreciated 5% per year:

5 years: $221,025

10 years: $503,116

Added equity from appreciation alone, before costs.

What if appreciation were half that—2.5% per year? The added equity from appreciation would be approximately $105,127 after five years and $224,068 after ten years.

Now compare $4,000 Monthly Rent

If your rent went up 5% per year, what would it look like?

Hypothetical comparison After 5 years After 10 years
Home value at 5% annual appreciation $1,021,025 $1,303,116
Added equity from 5% appreciation $221,025 $503,116
Home value at 2.5% annual appreciation $905,127 $1,024,068
Added equity from 2.5% appreciation $105,127 $224,068
Monthly rent if $4,000 rises 5% per year $5,105/month $6,516/month
Total rent paid over the first 5 or 10 years $265,230 $603,739

These are hypothetical illustrations, not forecasts. Monthly rent follows five or ten annual increases; cumulative rent begins at $4,000/month in year one. Ownership, financing and selling costs are excluded, so this is not a complete rent-versus-buy comparison.

Rent provides housing and flexibility, but it does not build ownership in that property. Owning can build equity through appreciation and paying down the mortgage principal.

Your total equity equals the home’s value minus the remaining mortgage balance. The equity gains shown above reflect appreciation alone, before adding your initial down payment and principal paydown. They are not net profit after costs. Home values can also decline.

Why Do Homeowners Have About 38 Times More Wealth?

The Federal Reserve’s 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances reported median homeowner household net worth of $396,200, compared with $10,400 for renters and other nonowners—approximately 38 times as much.

That is a national comparison, not a promise that buying makes someone 38 times wealthier. Income, age, savings and other investments also matter. Still, appreciation and paying down mortgage principal can make homeownership an important part of a long-term wealth plan.

You may have seen parents or relatives build stability through owning a home. Let’s explore how you could start too. Eligible homeowners may also receive tax benefits; ask your CPA what applies to your situation.

Worried About Foreclosures? Compare the Scale

I worked through San Diego’s foreclosure crisis. In my 2009 comparison, approximately 17,000 homes were on the market, and 45% were foreclosures or short sales.

My current snapshot shows approximately 6,000 available homes and 106 distressed listings—about 1.8%. These are my approximate market snapshots; historical search definitions may differ.

I watch distressed sellers, excess inventory and buyer demand. Slower sales alone do not establish a foreclosure crisis. Today’s distressed-listing share in my snapshot is far below the 2009 comparison.

Your First Home Can Be Your First Step

Perhaps the home you can buy has one fewer bedroom than your rental, or is a condo rather than a detached house. That tradeoff may help you start owning sooner. A fixer only makes sense when its condition and repair budget are manageable.

Make getting a plan a sprint. Buy thoughtfully.

If you need to improve credit, build savings or stabilize income, waiting with a specific goal can help. If you are financially ready and simply postponing the work, let’s explore your options now. Keep room in your budget for emergencies, repairs and the rest of your life.

Popular Home Searches: Start With Your Area and Budget

San Diego Homes Under $1 Million San Diego Condos Chula Vista Homes Downtown San Diego Condos Homes in Poway Unified Schools San Diego 55+ Communities Homes Along the 56 Corridor San Dieguito Schools / North County Coastal Coastal Homes: La Jolla to Coronado Orange County Homes Palm Springs Homes Temecula Homes

Tell me your area, budget, preferred payment, bedrooms and timing. I’ll help narrow the options instead of sending hundreds of random listings.

Selling Too? Put Both Sides of the Move Together

If you own a home, your next purchase starts with understanding what you can net from selling. We can compare cash-offer and open-market options, buy-before-you-sell programs, and flexible listing services from do-it-yourself to full service.*

Get Your Home Value & Explore Cash Offers

Let’s Build a Relationship—and a Plan

I’m George Lorimer: a native San Diegan, longtime real estate broker and MBA graduate. With over 25 years of experience and more than 1,200 home sales, I’d love to become your real estate resource and earn your business when you’re ready.

Thinking about buying in the next 30 days? Call or text me your preferred area, comfortable payment, and timeline. Let’s review homes, financing, and programs that may fit.

Call George: 619-846-1244 Text George to Get Started Schedule Your Free Strategy Call

George Lorimer | ProWest Properties
619-846-1244 | GeorgeLorimer.com
DRE #01146839
Your Home Sold Guaranteed, or I’ll Buy It!*

*Conditions apply. Guarantees, selling programs, loans, seller concessions, assumable mortgages, and assistance are subject to eligibility, availability, and applicable terms. Not all homes qualify. Hypothetical appreciation and rent growth are not guaranteed. Tax benefits vary; consult your CPA. September 2026 market figures come from the county reports reviewed for this update; distressed-listing figures are George’s approximate snapshots. Wealth figures are from the Federal Reserve’s 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances.


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